CARNAGE: 1.5 MILLION POSTS are going to be LOST THIS YEAR, PWC PREDICTS there’ll be consequences if government doesn’t address the difficulty .
Acloser check out yesterday’s labour force survey betrays the deceptively positive spectre of a pointy drop by unemployment within the second quarter of 2020, experts say.
The Statistics SA report shows that unemployment slowed 23.3% within the second quarter, a period characterised by devastating restrictions to economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
At an equivalent time, the economy was said to possess lost 2.2 million jobs during this era , a figure which could make another dramatic change for the more severe , come the top of the year, said economist Dr Philippe Burger.
The survey’s results indicated the most important quarter-to-quarter decline in jobs since 2008, showing the amount of employed persons decreased by 2.2 million to 14.1 million within the second quarter of 2020 compared to the primary quarter.
But, at an equivalent time, the amount of unemployed persons dropped by a huge 2.8 million to 4.3 million compared to the fi rst quarter.
According to Burger, this anomaly was largely thanks to the conditions of the lockdown, which prevented many unemployed people from actively finding work. Because unemployment is additionally defined by whether one is actively seeking work, Burger explained, many of us who were within the job-seeking category of unemployment before the lockdown began, moved into the category of the economically inactive.
According to the survey, the amount of discouraged workseekers also decreased 447 000. the bulk of those who removed of these three categories moved into the category of not economically active for reasons aside from discouragement.
The number of individuals during this category increased by 5.6 million between the 2 quarters. This meant, should the economy continue a gentle recovery, more people would begin trying to find work, increasing the probabilities of unemployment rising substantially. But this didn’t mean there wouldn’t be some real recovery of actual jobs lost.
“The number of unemployed people fell from seven million to 4.3 million and when it goes up go up, we’ll add five million people there. Then it’ll attend nine million within the third and therefore the fourth quarter, if those that lost their jobs within the first and second quarter don’t get employed within the last two quarters,” said Burger.
“Because the economy is bouncing back to some extent, of the 2.2 million people that lost their jobs, there could be variety who will get their jobs back. But there’ll still be an outsized number of individuals who not have jobs.”
The informal sector was the hardest-hit by the pandemic. While South Africa has some 2.7 million workers within the informal sector, accounting for 22.5% of total employment, it lost over 1 / 4 of these jobs during the second quarter of this year. Of the 2.2 million jobs lost, 640 000 were within the informal sector, largely in construction.
The percentage of these who lost their jobs within the formal sector was 10.8%, while within the informal sector that figure was 22%. privately households, which include domestic and gardening work, it had been 24%.
Noting the anomalies created by the lockdown period, firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) predicted South Africa’s net employment carnage for this year would be 1.5 million jobs. “If unsuccessful in addressing unemployment issues, PwC’s ADAPT framework warns that economies like South Africa may face increasing social unrest,” the firm said during a statement.
“Rising social and political unrest is already manifesting within the country. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project shows that SA experienced the foremost protests in September since the appointment of President Cyril Ramaphosa early in 2018.”
Social and political unrest is already manifesting